Another superb piece, Paul. I have been puzzled about Republicans’ seeming indifference to Trump’s unpopularity. How can this be with elections coming up?
The most sensible explanation for me is that they believe Trump will interfere with the elections on their behalf. See
Excellent analysis of the Republican party/cult. But leaves out the part that Trump controls the federal government and is going to intervene at every stage of the 2026 midterm election to prevent a Democratic majority in the House or Senate.
"Decompensating" is a precise medical and psychological term, and it's no surprise that a discerning analyst like Mr. Waldman would use it. I, however, am not a blogger, but simply a commenting reader, so I prefer the cruder but more direct word "insane"...
I'm not sure that the Republicans are as screwed as we'd like/hope to think. The latest Supreme Court decision on the Voting Rights Act is a very big deal. While they Gerrymander away Democratic seats in the south, voters who are disgusted with Trump may still end up with a Republican representative because it was preordained.
Mitch McConnell's tinkering with the Supreme Court was a master stroke in Republican power. Trump or not, the entire government is now honeycombed with Trumpists with the most extreme agenda. The Right is now embedded in every agency, courtroom, etc. in this country and it will take decades to remove them. With the Supreme Court putting their collective thumb on the scale it will be even harder to make meaningful change.
Cindy, I hope you are wrong. The partisan gerrymandering that is being done will add some Republican Congressmen and Women. I foresee a Blue Wave election that will leave Democrats in charge of both Houses. I know the gerrymandering will reduce the Democratic majority in the House. Nonetheless, I expect the Democratic wave will overcome whatever advantage the Republicans gain through frantic gerrymandering. The Senate is a different matter. Gerrymandering does not affect Senatorial votes because they are tabulated statewide. I still hope enough voters will vote for Democratic or independent candidates to replace the current "management" of both Houses.
There's one aspect of this that's important to consider, besides the more visible Congressional members of the Republican Party. After Trump was elected in 2016, three things happened.
First, MAGA Republicans started taking over local and state Republican parties. Second, Trump started installing hand-picked loyalists to take over the finances and structure of the national GOP. And thirdly, and most important, there was a shift in who identified and registered as Republican.
Since Trump's first term, the fastest-growing party in the US has been "unaffiliated" or "independent". We're in a situation now where, nationally, the electorate is divided in three, camps - Democrat, Republican, and Independent. Current stats are that around 27% of voters are unaffiliated.
The voters of the Republican Party have become more representative of the Trump cult and the party has been shedding uncertain non-believers. So, the Republicans in Congress and state houses are looking at smaller, more concentrated cult-oriented voting base.
That's one of main reasons Republicans are screwed. The "big tent" that developed under Reagan and subsequent Republican Presidents has collapsed. The party is left with the most extreme, most racist, and most emotionally unstable parts of the "old" pre-Trump Republicans. And that's reflected in the kind of incompetent, scandal-ridden, performative members of Congress the party has pushed into Congress in recent years.
More level-headed members of Congress that were there before the Trump shift understand this. But their hands are tied. If they go against the cult that's taken over the party, they can't get reelected. But they also know that by tying themselves to Trump, Democrats combined with an expanded base of refugees from the Republican Party will devastate them in general elections. Hence the gerrymandering and vote suppression schemes, a last ditch attempt to hold on to power in a climate where Trump's cult is hell-bent on self-destruction and taking everyone else with it.
The non-hardcore MAGA Republicans that haven't resigned from Congress already are probably hoping that, after the party losses, they can shift into "I never really supported Trump anyway" mode, hoping nobody will notice their support of the cult and they can rebuild the "big tent" party used to be. I'm skeptical this will be effective for them.
This is NOT a call to action—it is a sober, realistic observation. Given the level of anger, resentment, and division that the Trump administration has fueled and continues to fuel each day, the nation risks approaching a breaking point.🤬🤯🤬
There are limits to what people can endure; when government institutions are seen failing to respond, public pressure can intensify in unpredictable and potentially destructive ways.💥🇺🇸💥
While I do think that the GOP will at least try something shady, election wise, in November, I think there might be some sort of crackheaded game theory at play here in their minds (I know, I know, but bear with me a sec):
Trump (and even regular normie republicans) have been able to outperform polling and unpopular policies before, thanks to the stupidity and/or disillusionment and/or apathy and/or cultural tribalism of the American people. It sucks, but that's the way it is. (case in point: despite his lead in the polls, Talarico still has to be considered an underdog in his senate race, no matter who his opponent is, simply because of how red Texas is).
So yeah, Trump is unpopular, but he and his party have squeaked out wins in our first-past-the-post system before. And besides, the base, even if its increasingly wobbly and shrinking in its electoral relevance, still loves Mango Mussolini. So, going against him depresses support and overall enthusiasm. Better to hold tight. nod politely at his BS, pretend he's great, and stay the course and try to score a narrow victory (or a close loss that doesn't put you too far behind in '28 or '30) than to dampen your base's enthusiasm and get blown out and end up with a 30 seat Democratic house majority and 55 senate Ds.
One bigger concern is that the Trump cult has taken over the entire country, even if over half of us are appalled by what we see and don't really understand it (that would be me). What happens when the delusion comes crashing down? If only it were only cult members who suffered the catastrophic consequences, there would be a kind of justice to that. But I fear the rest of us, and not only Americans, may face some serious trouble too, whatever hand we had or didn't have in the evolution of the madness.
Another superb piece, Paul. I have been puzzled about Republicans’ seeming indifference to Trump’s unpopularity. How can this be with elections coming up?
The most sensible explanation for me is that they believe Trump will interfere with the elections on their behalf. See
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/05/opinion/trump-midterm-elections-2026.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share
Seems like they also had an inkling that the partisan Supreme Court was going to put their thumb on the scale for their party’s benefit.
Excellent analysis of the Republican party/cult. But leaves out the part that Trump controls the federal government and is going to intervene at every stage of the 2026 midterm election to prevent a Democratic majority in the House or Senate.
I feel your pain and yet it’s important to note that states control elections. The federal government never will.
"Trump is basically decompensating..."
"Decompensating" is a precise medical and psychological term, and it's no surprise that a discerning analyst like Mr. Waldman would use it. I, however, am not a blogger, but simply a commenting reader, so I prefer the cruder but more direct word "insane"...
I'm not sure that the Republicans are as screwed as we'd like/hope to think. The latest Supreme Court decision on the Voting Rights Act is a very big deal. While they Gerrymander away Democratic seats in the south, voters who are disgusted with Trump may still end up with a Republican representative because it was preordained.
Mitch McConnell's tinkering with the Supreme Court was a master stroke in Republican power. Trump or not, the entire government is now honeycombed with Trumpists with the most extreme agenda. The Right is now embedded in every agency, courtroom, etc. in this country and it will take decades to remove them. With the Supreme Court putting their collective thumb on the scale it will be even harder to make meaningful change.
I'm not as hopeful as Paul. I hope I'm wrong.
Cindy, I hope you are wrong. The partisan gerrymandering that is being done will add some Republican Congressmen and Women. I foresee a Blue Wave election that will leave Democrats in charge of both Houses. I know the gerrymandering will reduce the Democratic majority in the House. Nonetheless, I expect the Democratic wave will overcome whatever advantage the Republicans gain through frantic gerrymandering. The Senate is a different matter. Gerrymandering does not affect Senatorial votes because they are tabulated statewide. I still hope enough voters will vote for Democratic or independent candidates to replace the current "management" of both Houses.
Mitch McConnell’s Tinkering was lawless and we stood for it instead of stacking the Court when Biden got in.
Brilliant, astute, truthful. Thank you.
And Hegseth calls the PRESS “Pharisees”
Matthew 6:5-15
There's one aspect of this that's important to consider, besides the more visible Congressional members of the Republican Party. After Trump was elected in 2016, three things happened.
First, MAGA Republicans started taking over local and state Republican parties. Second, Trump started installing hand-picked loyalists to take over the finances and structure of the national GOP. And thirdly, and most important, there was a shift in who identified and registered as Republican.
Since Trump's first term, the fastest-growing party in the US has been "unaffiliated" or "independent". We're in a situation now where, nationally, the electorate is divided in three, camps - Democrat, Republican, and Independent. Current stats are that around 27% of voters are unaffiliated.
The voters of the Republican Party have become more representative of the Trump cult and the party has been shedding uncertain non-believers. So, the Republicans in Congress and state houses are looking at smaller, more concentrated cult-oriented voting base.
That's one of main reasons Republicans are screwed. The "big tent" that developed under Reagan and subsequent Republican Presidents has collapsed. The party is left with the most extreme, most racist, and most emotionally unstable parts of the "old" pre-Trump Republicans. And that's reflected in the kind of incompetent, scandal-ridden, performative members of Congress the party has pushed into Congress in recent years.
More level-headed members of Congress that were there before the Trump shift understand this. But their hands are tied. If they go against the cult that's taken over the party, they can't get reelected. But they also know that by tying themselves to Trump, Democrats combined with an expanded base of refugees from the Republican Party will devastate them in general elections. Hence the gerrymandering and vote suppression schemes, a last ditch attempt to hold on to power in a climate where Trump's cult is hell-bent on self-destruction and taking everyone else with it.
The non-hardcore MAGA Republicans that haven't resigned from Congress already are probably hoping that, after the party losses, they can shift into "I never really supported Trump anyway" mode, hoping nobody will notice their support of the cult and they can rebuild the "big tent" party used to be. I'm skeptical this will be effective for them.
Or else they know that the mid terms are already rigged, corrupted and subverted.
This is NOT a call to action—it is a sober, realistic observation. Given the level of anger, resentment, and division that the Trump administration has fueled and continues to fuel each day, the nation risks approaching a breaking point.🤬🤯🤬
There are limits to what people can endure; when government institutions are seen failing to respond, public pressure can intensify in unpredictable and potentially destructive ways.💥🇺🇸💥
Please feel free to share/restack this.♻️
Thank you. I've been worried about this for a long time. When institutions and the rule of law fail, all that's left is violence.
He’s going to stage a coup isn’t he? and his final legacy for America will be a civil war.
While I do think that the GOP will at least try something shady, election wise, in November, I think there might be some sort of crackheaded game theory at play here in their minds (I know, I know, but bear with me a sec):
Trump (and even regular normie republicans) have been able to outperform polling and unpopular policies before, thanks to the stupidity and/or disillusionment and/or apathy and/or cultural tribalism of the American people. It sucks, but that's the way it is. (case in point: despite his lead in the polls, Talarico still has to be considered an underdog in his senate race, no matter who his opponent is, simply because of how red Texas is).
So yeah, Trump is unpopular, but he and his party have squeaked out wins in our first-past-the-post system before. And besides, the base, even if its increasingly wobbly and shrinking in its electoral relevance, still loves Mango Mussolini. So, going against him depresses support and overall enthusiasm. Better to hold tight. nod politely at his BS, pretend he's great, and stay the course and try to score a narrow victory (or a close loss that doesn't put you too far behind in '28 or '30) than to dampen your base's enthusiasm and get blown out and end up with a 30 seat Democratic house majority and 55 senate Ds.
The Anointed...I mean Entitled...I mean Perfidious....Unctuous....Oleaginous.......
oh well, everybody's got to distinguish themselves somehow.
Extinguish himself somehow, as those fiery hot flames lick up from below.
Squeezing their eyes shut whilst patting him on the back, sending him off with a Bon Voyage!
to that Special Place in Hell
At least Jim Jones could speak coherently.
One bigger concern is that the Trump cult has taken over the entire country, even if over half of us are appalled by what we see and don't really understand it (that would be me). What happens when the delusion comes crashing down? If only it were only cult members who suffered the catastrophic consequences, there would be a kind of justice to that. But I fear the rest of us, and not only Americans, may face some serious trouble too, whatever hand we had or didn't have in the evolution of the madness.
🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮
Paul, I hope you are right for the sake and morality of our country.