You might not see the labor numbers because the Dept of Labor will be told not to release them. We won't be able to see what effect on jobs their policies are causing.
I also worry about this. Maybe not in April, but certainly after that. And I am not convinced that corporate sales and earning will fill in that information gap. And certainly that information will be harder to access and synthesize into a useful form.
Because he is approaching the current circumstances like he does everything, in a totally chaotic way, I don’t see any way his actions won’t create a recession, potential economic collapse, and World War III if the US aligns with China and Russia.
Rothstein is spot on. In addition to the drivers he discusses, consider also the inflationary effect of the anti-immigrant drives and the failure to address food-production disruptions such as bird flu and public health crises such as the measles outbreak. OK, that last item isn't a full-blown crisis yet, but preliminary indications aren't reassuring and the person just appointed to lead public health efforts is hostile to the concept of public health.
Chaos will reign; we'll start to see the signs of economic decline in a couple of months (if we can get any data), and I'll be astonished if the orange criminal and his henchmen haven't driven the economic airplane completely into the ground by Labor Day. And let's not even get started on international relations. Far too depressing to go there.
I've been talking about this with my wife for the last three days. Thank you, Paul, for jumping on to this topic. I hope the private sector can generate the numbers that will replace the government reporting when it goes away.
I think we are on the cusp of a Trump depression, not recession. His actions are beyond reckless. And as others have said, I think that the Bureau of Labor Statistics as well as any other federal agency will be ordered to alter the numbers to better fit Trump's deranged worldview. But it will be hard to cover up when the unemployment offices are overwhelmed, the soup kitchens are overwhelmed, and even the MAGAest MAGA is screaming about job losses and loss of the federal benefits that they think they deserve more than anyone else.
I already knew all this because I saw the Bluesky posts. My husband and I are already deferring vacation plans. We’re semi-retired and thank God we have savings, but we have no confidence Social Security is going to survive this administration. I had been planning to put off my SS until age 70, but enrolled the day after the election, on the assumption we’d better get it while we could.
This is right on. As a federal worker, I am worried about my future and am absolutely cutting back. I am canceling vacations and nixed buying a car. My office lost 20 percent of our team this week in Musk’s illegal firings. They are talented people in their 20s and 30s who were the future leaders. It will totally cripple my agency. I am in my 50s and trying to hold on, but I see dark days ahead.
Paul, I’m about to get kicked off FB for linking to this article. Some followers asked me to list my Bluesky handle here. I hope that you don’t mind. @captainpablo.bsky.social
Thank you for the post. I think our golden leader may know how tariffs work, but the key for his is the bribery. Look at all of those $1M 'donations' to his inaugural, the law suit settlements, and the $40M 'payment for his wife's fascinating life story. Dr. Krugman has mentioned that all future federal economic reports should be questioned because the people who now write them have changed. I expect most of the younger laid off specialists to be hired by other countries, so another permanent loss.
Re tariffs: are the exemptions the point? Trump likely knows that everything he publicly says about tariffs is wrong (oh, his poor unknowingly humiliated supporters), but they give him leverage over US businesses. That on its own could explain why he has made it a priority to impose or threaten (usually threaten) tariffs.
I was listening to NPR in the car earlier and they were talking about Trump trying to blackmail Zelinsky into giving Trump the profits from selling the rare earth metals in the Ukraine in order to possibly get a better deal for Ukraine when Trump carves it up with Putin.
You might not see the labor numbers because the Dept of Labor will be told not to release them. We won't be able to see what effect on jobs their policies are causing.
It will show up in corporate sales and earnings, especially in consumer driven companies.
I also worry about this. Maybe not in April, but certainly after that. And I am not convinced that corporate sales and earning will fill in that information gap. And certainly that information will be harder to access and synthesize into a useful form.
Because he is approaching the current circumstances like he does everything, in a totally chaotic way, I don’t see any way his actions won’t create a recession, potential economic collapse, and World War III if the US aligns with China and Russia.
Rothstein is spot on. In addition to the drivers he discusses, consider also the inflationary effect of the anti-immigrant drives and the failure to address food-production disruptions such as bird flu and public health crises such as the measles outbreak. OK, that last item isn't a full-blown crisis yet, but preliminary indications aren't reassuring and the person just appointed to lead public health efforts is hostile to the concept of public health.
Chaos will reign; we'll start to see the signs of economic decline in a couple of months (if we can get any data), and I'll be astonished if the orange criminal and his henchmen haven't driven the economic airplane completely into the ground by Labor Day. And let's not even get started on international relations. Far too depressing to go there.
I love this interview and the inspiration for it: hey, this post went viral, let's talk to the author.
Paul, that's one of your best pieces ever, and I've been reading you since your days at WaPo. I'll be sharing this widely.
Thanks! Appreciate it.
Agree. Laid out the impact of this madness on all of us in plain language.
I've been talking about this with my wife for the last three days. Thank you, Paul, for jumping on to this topic. I hope the private sector can generate the numbers that will replace the government reporting when it goes away.
I think we are on the cusp of a Trump depression, not recession. His actions are beyond reckless. And as others have said, I think that the Bureau of Labor Statistics as well as any other federal agency will be ordered to alter the numbers to better fit Trump's deranged worldview. But it will be hard to cover up when the unemployment offices are overwhelmed, the soup kitchens are overwhelmed, and even the MAGAest MAGA is screaming about job losses and loss of the federal benefits that they think they deserve more than anyone else.
I increased my donation to the local centralized food bank in my area.
I already knew all this because I saw the Bluesky posts. My husband and I are already deferring vacation plans. We’re semi-retired and thank God we have savings, but we have no confidence Social Security is going to survive this administration. I had been planning to put off my SS until age 70, but enrolled the day after the election, on the assumption we’d better get it while we could.
Fantastic interview - lays out the near and medium term effects of (gestures wildly) all this very clearly thank you!
This is right on. As a federal worker, I am worried about my future and am absolutely cutting back. I am canceling vacations and nixed buying a car. My office lost 20 percent of our team this week in Musk’s illegal firings. They are talented people in their 20s and 30s who were the future leaders. It will totally cripple my agency. I am in my 50s and trying to hold on, but I see dark days ahead.
Thank you for this, very informative
Paul, I’m about to get kicked off FB for linking to this article. Some followers asked me to list my Bluesky handle here. I hope that you don’t mind. @captainpablo.bsky.social
Feel free. Power to the people!
Thanks! You do great work.
Thank you for the post. I think our golden leader may know how tariffs work, but the key for his is the bribery. Look at all of those $1M 'donations' to his inaugural, the law suit settlements, and the $40M 'payment for his wife's fascinating life story. Dr. Krugman has mentioned that all future federal economic reports should be questioned because the people who now write them have changed. I expect most of the younger laid off specialists to be hired by other countries, so another permanent loss.
Just wait until they start fiddling with all of the statistics.
Thank you for the transcript. Illuminating.
Re tariffs: are the exemptions the point? Trump likely knows that everything he publicly says about tariffs is wrong (oh, his poor unknowingly humiliated supporters), but they give him leverage over US businesses. That on its own could explain why he has made it a priority to impose or threaten (usually threaten) tariffs.
I was listening to NPR in the car earlier and they were talking about Trump trying to blackmail Zelinsky into giving Trump the profits from selling the rare earth metals in the Ukraine in order to possibly get a better deal for Ukraine when Trump carves it up with Putin.
https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2025/02/21/ukraine-earth-metals-trump